ASTS-03 — Are Launches the Biggest Risk? Musk vs Bezos vs Indian Rocket War. Blue Origin's New Glenn vs Falcon 9

Date: 2026-01-13 Ticker: ASTS Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sd79EctPGh8

Summary

• Bluebird-6 (the first next-gen production satellite, 6.1 tons) successfully launched in December 2025 by ISRO (India Space Research Organisation) on its LVM-3 rocket. ASTS used a traditional non-reusable but high-reliability rocket for safety on this critical first launch.
• Next-gen Bluebird is much larger: 2,400 sq ft (~220 m²) phased-array antenna, vs the previous generation's 693 sq ft (~64 m²). About 3.5x larger antenna. Each satellite weighs ~6.1 tons. Most rocket options can't handle this — Rocket Lab's smaller rockets are out, only Falcon 9, New Glenn, or India's LVM-3 work.
• 2026 launch plan: 45-60 satellites in 6 launches (every 2 months on average). Each launch needs to carry 6-7 satellites to meet the count. Falcon 9 to LEO: 22 tons (~3 satellites). Blue Origin's New Glenn to LEO: 45 tons (~6-7 satellites) — better fit for ASTS's mission profile and could outperform Falcon 9 on price-per-satellite.
• Bluebird-7 launches Q1 2026 on Blue Origin New Glenn (the second commercial NG flight; NASA Clips lunar mission goes first).
• Speaker's read: Launch capability is one of the biggest 2026 execution risks for ASTS. Blue Origin and Falcon 9 having sufficient capacity technically is great news. Cost-per-launch is the open question — Bluebird-6 was launched solo on the Indian rocket; that's not financially sustainable for 45-60 satellites. ASTS will need to start batch-launching multiple satellites per flight to make economics work. 2026 = bullish for the broader space sector because more rocket capacity (Bezos's New Glenn now operational) reduces ASTS's launch dependency on SpaceX (its direct competitor).

Translation

Hello everyone, this is X. Today's update on ASTS — the satellite-comms company I'm building a heavy 2026 position in. The question today: is launch capacity a real risk? Their entire 2026 deployment plan depends on rockets, and rockets are competitive territory between Musk, Bezos, and the Indian space agency.

All my videos are personal investment notes. Sharing this is not a buy/sell signal.

What's launching: Next-gen Bluebird

ASTS uses two satellite generations: - BlueWalker (first prototype) and Bluebird 1-5 (the commercial test fleet, currently in service): 693 sq ft (~64 m²) phased-array antenna with solar collection on the reverse side. - Bluebird 6 onwards (Block 2): 2,400 sq ft (~220 m²) antenna — about 3.5x larger area. Several apartment-floors of antenna folded together. ~6.1 tons per satellite.

The mass jump matters because not every rocket can lift 6.1 tons to LEO. Rocket Lab's small Electron rocket (which carries Cubesats / Planet Labs Doves) is out. Falcon 9, New Glenn, and ISRO's LVM-3 are the viable options.

Bluebird-6 launched on India's LVM-3 (December 2025)

ASTS chose ISRO's LVM-3 for the first big launch: - LVM-3 = Launch Vehicle Mark 3, India's heavy-medium booster - Three-stage, traditional design (non-reusable), looks more old-school - Strong recent safety record — virtually no recent failures - Successfully delivered Bluebird-6 to orbit in December 2025

Why ISRO first? ASTS played it safe with the first big production satellite. New Glenn (Bezos's new heavy reusable rocket) was still proving itself. Falcon 9 has occasional failures even with high success rate. India's traditional rocket has been the most reliable option for this critical first new-gen flight.

What's next: Blue Origin's New Glenn

After Bluebird-6, the next launches go to Blue Origin (Bezos's company) on the New Glenn rocket (named after astronaut John Glenn).

New Glenn specs: - Reusable (like Falcon 9) - Diameter 7 m — fat-bodied (more cargo volume) - Lift to GTO (geostationary transfer): ~13 tons - Lift to LEO: ~45 tons

So New Glenn to LEO can carry 6-7 ASTS satellites per launch under ideal packing. That's the key number — ASTS needs ~6-7 satellites per launch to hit its 45-60 satellite target across 6 launches.

For comparison: - Falcon 9 to LEO: 22 tons (~3 satellites) - New Glenn to LEO: 45 tons (~6-7 satellites) — 2x Falcon 9 - Starship (when fully operational): 100-145 tons (3x New Glenn) — but not yet validated

So Bezos's New Glenn is more cargo-efficient for ASTS than Falcon 9. This is competitively significant: ASTS can break dependence on SpaceX (which is also its direct telecom competitor through Starlink). Bezos provides ASTS with strategic optionality.

The launch manifest

Looking at New Glenn's customer manifest, Bluebird Block 2 is scheduled for Q1 2026, after NASA's Clips lunar mission (21 tons). The schedule shows "1×" for the Bluebird launch, implying only one satellite per launch — which is curious. With 45-ton capacity, why not 6-7?

Possible reasons: 1. ASTS hasn't yet optimized fold/stowage geometry for multi-satellite payload 2. Antenna size and solar collector occupy a lot of fairing volume even folded 3. Risk-averse first NG launch (single-satellite to validate)

If they really do launch one satellite per New Glenn flight at full cost, the per-satellite launch cost is enormous — could easily exceed satellite manufacturing cost. Not sustainable for 45-60 satellites.

The expectation: ASTS will need to optimize for multi-satellite payloads per launch in the coming flights. Otherwise the launch budget blows up.

ASTS satellite assembly cadence

Good news on the manufacturing side: ASTS can assemble 4-5 satellites per month on the ground. So the production line is keeping pace with launch cadence — satellites are queuing up "ready to ship." Production is not the bottleneck; launch capacity and packing efficiency are.

What this means for the 2026 thesis

Technical feasibility: Yes, ASTS can complete the 45-60 satellite deployment with available rockets (New Glenn + Falcon 9 + ISRO LVM-3 if needed).

Open questions: 1. Per-flight payload optimization — multi-satellite per New Glenn launch needed 2. Schedule slot competition — New Glenn has many other customers (NASA, etc.) 3. Cost per satellite delivered — currently inefficient, must improve

The good news: Bezos's New Glenn entering operational service in 2026 is a major positive catalyst for the entire space sector. More launch capacity = lower friction for satellite deployment programs. ASTS specifically benefits because it now has a credible non-SpaceX heavy launch option.

If ASTS were forced to rely on Falcon 9 alone — controlled by their direct telecom competitor (Musk/Starlink) — that would be a strategic vulnerability. Now they have alternatives. This reduces the launch-side risk meaningfully.

China is likely also developing capabilities, but the US won't allow ASTS satellites to launch on Chinese rockets. The launch ecosystem accessible to ASTS is: SpaceX, Blue Origin, India, smaller US providers — all in the Western strategic alliance.

Bottom line

Launches won't be the killing blow for ASTS in 2026. Blue Origin's New Glenn coming online is a meaningful de-risking event. There's still operational risk in: - Packing efficiency / per-flight cost - Schedule slots - Manufacturing & deployment timing alignment

But fundamentally, the rocket-side blocker has cleared. 2026 stays my high-conviction position year for ASTS.

Today's broader takeaway: the space sector overall benefits from multiple operational heavy rockets. 2026 sees Falcon 9 + New Glenn (commercial) + ISRO + (eventually) Starship. More rockets = more launches = more constellations deployed = bullish for the entire sector.

OK that's it for today. Thanks. See you next time. Bye-bye.