Deep Alpha Copilot
ASTS  ·  DeepAlpha scorecard  ·  2026-06-19

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

Technology · Communication Equipment
DeepAlpha
6.9/10
Recommendation
Hold
Confidence
92%
Hold
Medium-term (6-12 months horizon)

As of 2026-06-19, Deep Alpha Copilot rates ASTS (AST SpaceMobile, Inc.) Hold with an overall score of 6.9/10 at 92% confidence, with a medium-term (6-12 months horizon). AST SpaceMobile, Inc It monetizes through diversified platforms and services across enterprise and consumer channels. Recent quarterly revenue was roughly $70.9M, growing 381.2% vs. the prior period as AI demand scales.

Open ASTS on the dashboard → Score history CSV ↓
Pillar breakdown

DeepAlpha 7-pillar scorecard for ASTS.

Weighted pillar scores driving the overall ASTS rating. How weights work.

  • Financial
    25% 5.1

    Revenue CAGR 72.5%, net margin -482.2%, with free cash flow coverage -0.47x.

  • Business
    20% 9.1

    Operating in Communication Equipment, revenue CAGR of 72.5% and gross margin of 50.3% signal a strong moat.

  • Sentiment
    15% 7.5

    News sentiment 0.18 across 10 items.

  • Critical Path
    10% 5.0

    ASTS operates in Communication Equipment, weighted criticality score 5.0.

  • Leadership
    10% 7.5

    Led by Mr. Abel Avellan (Founder, Chairman & CEO).

  • Earnings
    10% 5.0

    No quarterly earnings data available; treating as neutral.

  • Technical
    10% 9.0

    RSI 28.3, MACD differential -3.20, closing price $85.43.

Quick facts

ASTS at a glance.

  • Market cap $31.3B
  • Revenue (TTM) $85M
  • Revenue growth YoY +1952.2%
  • Profit margin -573.7%
  • EPS (TTM) $-1.80
  • Forward P/E -393.1
  • HQ Midland, TX

Business model. Technology and business services company serving various market segments.

Bull case

Why buy ASTS.

Strong business model with solid revenue growth and margins Positive market sentiment and momentum

Bear case

Main risks for ASTS.

Technology sector faces potential regulatory headwinds and rapid innovation cycles High volatility (beta 2.6) means larger price swings vs market

Recent coverage

What’s in the news for ASTS.

Aggregated from major newswires and curated sources, sentiment-scored.

Frequently asked

About ASTS.

What is the DeepAlpha score for ASTS?

The DeepAlpha score for ASTS is 6.9/10, rated Hold, last updated 2026-06-19.

Is ASTS a buy right now?

As of 2026-06-19, Deep Alpha Copilot rates ASTS as Hold with an overall score of 6.9/10. Scores 8.0+ are Strong Buy, 6.0–8.0 Buy, 4.0–6.0 Hold, below 4.0 Sell.

How does Deep Alpha Copilot score ASTS?

Seven weighted pillars: Financial 25%, Business 20%, Sentiment 15%, Critical Path 10%, Leadership 10%, Earnings 10%, Technical 10%. Inputs include yfinance fundamentals, SEC filings, live news sentiment, Reddit and StockTwits social sentiment, EPS surprise history, and technical indicators. See the methodology for full detail.

What sector is ASTS in?

ASTS (AST SpaceMobile, Inc.) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Communication Equipment industry.

Want more

The live, interactive view for ASTS.

Charts, news feed, twelve investor personas, institutional flow, and the full memo on the dashboard.

Open ASTS on the dashboard → Score history CSV ↓

Disclaimer. Deep Alpha Copilot provides informational analysis and does not constitute investment advice.

Expert commentary

What independent analysts are saying about ASTS

Curated summaries of independent video commentary covering ASTS. Source material is third-party; we summarize, attribute, and link out.

WAR-06 — Iran Lashing Out. Defense Stocks Pulling Back Strangely. BKSY & ASTS Earnings Pop. Space Heating Up. SpaceX V2 Killer Satellites

2026-03-04
  • **Iran conflict ongoing.** US/Israel have military dominance, but Iran is "lashing out like a mad dog" — striking US embassies in Dubai and Saudi (fixed targets, easier to hit). Conflict could last more than a few days but probably not Trump's stated 4 weeks. Even Hegseth and the joint chiefs **don't know exactly how long** at the press conference.
  • **AI is making US military strikes much more accurate and efficient.** Like DeepSeek and frontier AI in civilian life, military AI is even further ahead. This means **shorter, cheaper, more targeted operations** going forward.
  • **Defense stocks are pulling back fast** despite the war. KTOS, AVAV, ONDS, OndasH, RedCat all spiked Mon/Tue then partially reversed. **The market is now "more cunning" — taking profits faster.** Big primes (LMT, GD, RTX, NOC, HII) only down 1-3% so far but elevated PE means **post-conflict pullback is coming**. Speaker treats this as **speculation territory**, not core holdings.
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ASTS-04 — Space Shield Prime Contract (STARLINK Envious). February Launch Anxiety. Will It Succeed? How Big Is the Add-on-Dip Window?

2026-02-01 · paid tier
  • **ASTS won a Prime Contract from the US Missile Defense Agency's Shield program** (part of Trump's $150B "Golden Dome" defense initiative — ~10% of US 2026 defense budget that's targeting $1.5T). **Prime status is significant** — Shield will use ~300 subcontractors, and ASTS sits at the top of the satellite-defense pyramid. **Starlink got nothing in this allocation** despite SpaceX having its own military arm (Star Shield, separate from Starlink). The contract is **IDIQ** (indefinite-delivery / indefinite-quantity) — upside is uncapped, performance-tied.
  • **Bluebird-7 launches late February 2026** on Blue Origin's New Glenn from Cape Canaveral SLC-36. **Single satellite per launch** (despite NG capacity of ~6-7 satellites) — first NG-ASTS collaboration so both teams are being conservative. NG has 2/2 successful launches (Jan & Nov 2025), giving high confidence. **If successful, Blue Origin becomes ASTS's most reliable launch partner** for the remaining 2026 deployments — independent of Falcon 9 (controlled by competitor SpaceX).
  • **Stock action:** Currently elevated (~$309B, ASTS implied ~$30B mcap actually). 4 wave cycles in past year, each lasting ~1-2 months from peak to trough. Last wave: $58 → $90s → ~$50s pullback. **Speaker thinks 2H 2026 stock will be meaningfully higher** because the launch cadence (every 2 months for 6 launches) compresses execution into the year — they can't push everything to H2.
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ASTS-03 — Are Launches the Biggest Risk? Musk vs Bezos vs Indian Rocket War. Blue Origin's New Glenn vs Falcon 9

2026-01-13
  • **Bluebird-6 (the first next-gen production satellite, 6.1 tons) successfully launched in December 2025** by ISRO (India Space Research Organisation) on its LVM-3 rocket. ASTS used a traditional non-reusable but high-reliability rocket for safety on this critical first launch.
  • **Next-gen Bluebird is much larger:** **2,400 sq ft (~220 m²) phased-array antenna**, vs the previous generation's 693 sq ft (~64 m²). About **3.5x larger antenna**. Each satellite weighs **~6.1 tons**. Most rocket options can't handle this — Rocket Lab's smaller rockets are out, only Falcon 9, New Glenn, or India's LVM-3 work.
  • **2026 launch plan: 45-60 satellites in 6 launches** (every 2 months on average). Each launch needs to carry 6-7 satellites to meet the count. Falcon 9 to LEO: 22 tons (~3 satellites). **Blue Origin's New Glenn to LEO: 45 tons (~6-7 satellites)** — better fit for ASTS's mission profile and could outperform Falcon 9 on price-per-satellite.
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