LEU-05 — Stock Cut in Half. Capacity Bouncing All Over. How Will They Fulfill So Many Orders?

Date: 2026-02-13 Ticker: LEU (Centrus Energy) Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZbpjBesFEo

Summary

• LEU stock cut in half from $400+ peak to ~$185 after Q4 2025 earnings. PE ~47-50, technically reasonable for the growth profile but the stock is in a 2-cycle drawdown. Speaker is holding the position (entered earlier, not at the top), looking 5+ years out.
• Q4 2025 results: revenue $146M (slight miss), earnings missed by more. Full-year revenue $448M. Production: completed 1 ton of HALEU (vs 900 kg target — exceeded). Phase 3 production delayed to H2 2026. Quarterly results are volatile because Russia uranium imports are unpredictable.
• Order backlog: $2.3B (5x annual revenue) of LEU commercial orders, plus 12 tons of HALEU on order (12x current annual production). DOE awarded $900M for capacity expansion. Plans for commercial centrifuge manufacturing restarting domestically (Honeywell partnership).
• Russia ban deadline: Jan 1, 2028. US has ~2 years to replace the 40%+ of US uranium enrichment that comes from Russia. Capacity expansion is doubling: Phase 1 → 2 → 3 = 3.5 → 7 → 14 SWU. Time table: build-out runs through 2030+.
• Long-term TAM: US reactors $3B/year, national security $3.9-6B, global utilities $2.4B, advanced reactors (HALEU specifically) growing to $2.8B by 2030 / $8B by 2035. LEU is the dominant US enrichment provider — likely uncontested through at least 2030.
• Speaker's position: $19B cash on $36B market cap = strong balance sheet. Past dilution has been moderate. Capacity expansion likely fundable from cash + DOE awards without massive dilution. Continue holding, don't add aggressively at current levels — could go lower in current liquidity environment for small caps. Long-term thesis intact.

Translation

Hello everyone, this is X. Today's update on LEU (Centrus Energy) — the only US producer of HALEU (high-assay low-enriched uranium) for advanced small modular reactors, plus key fuel supplier to US nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and submarines. Let's go through Q4 2025 earnings and what they mean.

Today is Friday, February 13, 2026. LEU is at $185 — recovered slightly from a deep post-earnings drop. The price is now back to roughly where it was in August 2025 — under 6 months ago, but two complete bull-bear cycles in between. PE 47.

If we assume the prior $400+ peak as the high, stock is cut in half. Lesson: don't buy at peaks. I'm holding (didn't buy at the peak), looking 5+ years out.

Q4 2025 earnings results

Revenue: $146M (slight miss). Q3 2025 was already a step down from earlier strong quarters. Q4 was supposed to recover but came in slightly under. Full-year revenue: $448M. Earnings miss was more substantial than revenue miss.

Why the volatility? LEU's revenue depends heavily on Russian uranium import timing — when Russia delays shipments, LEU's quarterly numbers crater. This is not a steady-state earnings story; it's a policy- and geopolitics-driven business.

Looking at the chart: LEU regularly has wild swings between targets, target raises, target misses, target beats. Even when targets hit, they're not deeply predictable. The market doesn't trust the smoothed forward curve — hence the high volatility.

HALEU production

• 2025 target: 900 kg. Actual: 1 ton (1,000 kg). Exceeded.
• Phase 3 (next stage) delayed to H2 2026.
• 1 ton/year is small. Customers (advanced reactor companies) are getting test allocations from the DOE — not a commercial-scale supply yet.
• Big revenue from HALEU is years away (2027-2030+).

DOE $900M Award

DOE awarded $900M to LEU for capacity expansion. For context, DOE's other critical mineral awards have been in the tens of millions; $900M is massive. A large portion will go to: - Building out commercial centrifuge manufacturing domestically (US-made centrifuges instead of relying on Russian/older equipment) - One centrifuge plant exists at Honeywell (yes, Honeywell — old industrial player benefiting from US re-industrialization theme) - Initial $60M investment for new domestic commercial centrifuge production - Total scale-up: many billions over multi-year build

Order backlog: $2.3B in commercial LEU orders — that's ~5x annual revenue. Plenty of demand. The bottleneck is capacity.

HALEU forward orders: 12 tons — vs 1 ton/year current production = 12x current capacity.

The Russia ban timeline

Russia ban for uranium imports: Jan 1, 2028.

That's less than 2 years away. LEU has to scale enough capacity to fill the gap. Phase 1 → Phase 2 → Phase 3 SWU output: 3.5 → 7 → 14 units (each phase roughly double).

Timeline table: - 2025-2027: Tenex contract supply continues - 2025-2030: Orano supply contract - Centrifuge construction: started, runs into 2030s - 2028 = critical inflection — must hit minimum domestic capacity to substitute for Russian imports

The window is tight. There's no slack in the schedule.

Total Addressable Market hierarchy

LEU's pyramid (top to bottom: current → future, but the future tier is bigger):

• US reactors: $3B/year opportunity
• National security (carriers, submarines): $3.9-6B/year — LEU is the dominant supplier
• Global utilities (LEU + HALEU): $2.4B/year
• Advanced reactors (HALEU specifically) — the future big one:
• 2030: $2.8B opportunity
• 2035: $8B opportunity

This is the multi-decade story. LEU's HALEU dominance is almost uncontested through at least 2030 — the technology is hazardous-process intensive and domestic capacity barely exists. Even if competitors emerge in 2025-2027, they'd take years to commission.

The US may want to diversify for safety reasons (don't put all eggs in one supplier basket), but in the near-term LEU is the only viable provider.

SWU pricing

SWU (the unit of enrichment) prices: - Pre-Russia-Ukraine war (early 2021): ~$70 - Mid-conflict (2024): ~$150 - Now: $200

Nearly 3x in 4 years. Going forward, removing Chinese and Russian capacity from the equation drives further upside — they account for ~2/3 of global supply. Western capacity has to scale into this gap, and pricing reflects scarcity.

Important partners (for ecosystem understanding)

LEU's customer/partner list: - TerraPower (Microsoft-backed, private) — uses HALEU - X-Energy (private) — uses HALEU - OKLO — listed in their partner deck. Significant signal: a specialized industry player putting OKLO in the partner list = OKLO's tech is considered credible by people who know the field intimately. Vote of confidence on OKLO's path to NRC approval. - Several others (some I'm not deeply familiar with yet)

Balance sheet

• Market cap: ~$3.6B
• Cash + equivalents: ~$1.9B (close to half of mcap)
• Some debt but manageable
• Past dilution: moderate (not 2-3x explosive dilution like some growth stocks)
• Capex of "a few hundred million" is fundable from cash + DOE awards without massive dilution

This is financially conservative for a high-growth nuclear infrastructure company. Strong runway.

My positioning

• Earlier entry, not at the peak — comfortable holding
• Not in a hurry to add at current levels (could drop further in liquidity-stressed market for small caps)
• 250-day moving average is just below — could test that
• PE compressed to ~50 from higher levels = relatively attractive
• Long-term thesis intact: LEU is the cornerstone of US uranium-enrichment independence

Bottom line

Hold what you have. Don't chase peaks. Add on real dips, not on bounces. The story is multi-year, the path is volatile.

OK, that's the share for today. Wishing everyone financial freedom soon. Thanks. See you next time. Bye-bye.