WAR-06 — Iran Lashing Out. Defense Stocks Pulling Back Strangely. BKSY & ASTS Earnings Pop. Space Heating Up. SpaceX V2 Killer Satellites

Date: 2026-03-04 Tickers: BKSY (BlackSky), ASTS, defense stocks (KTOS, AVAV, OndasH, RedCat, LMT, GD, RTX, NOC, HII) Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAm-3r3pzwI

Summary

• Iran conflict ongoing. US/Israel have military dominance, but Iran is "lashing out like a mad dog" — striking US embassies in Dubai and Saudi (fixed targets, easier to hit). Conflict could last more than a few days but probably not Trump's stated 4 weeks. Even Hegseth and the joint chiefs don't know exactly how long at the press conference.
• AI is making US military strikes much more accurate and efficient. Like DeepSeek and frontier AI in civilian life, military AI is even further ahead. This means shorter, cheaper, more targeted operations going forward.
• Defense stocks are pulling back fast despite the war. KTOS, AVAV, ONDS, OndasH, RedCat all spiked Mon/Tue then partially reversed. The market is now "more cunning" — taking profits faster. Big primes (LMT, GD, RTX, NOC, HII) only down 1-3% so far but elevated PE means post-conflict pullback is coming. Speaker treats this as speculation territory, not core holdings.
• BKSY (BlackSky) Q4 earnings: $35M revenue (slight miss but record), $345M backlog (record, +6.9% QoQ). Gen 3 satellites = 90%+ of backlog. Gross margin jumped from ~30% to 49%. Net margin almost zero (close to profitability). Will benefit from Iran conflict (Saudi/UAE/etc. governments will buy more imagery). Liquidity $225M+. Speaker plans to add to BKSY position at current $22 level.
• ASTS Q4 earnings: blow-out revenue beat ($70.9M for full year), $1.2B+ contract commitments. Bluebird-6 successfully deployed (120 Mbps speeds). Bluebird-7 pushed to March from late Feb (weather + Blue Origin extra caution on first joint flight). 40 satellites planned for H1 2026. Speaker is adding to ASTS aggressively at recent dip into the "triangle" zone he previously drew.
• SpaceX V2 (full version, not V2 Mini) announced March 2 — 2,400 sq ft phased-array (same size as ASTS Bluebird Block 2). SpaceX is now copying ASTS's architectural approach. But SpaceX is behind — they need Starship to launch big satellites, technical team needs scaling. Telcos are forming a Western anti-Starlink alliance (AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Orange + ASTS). Antitrust law forces Starship to launch competitor ASTS satellites.

Translation

Hello everyone, this is X. Today is Wednesday, March 4, 2026.

The Iran conflict continues. US and Israel have absolute initiative, but Iran is lashing out — striking US embassies in Dubai and Saudi Arabia. These are fixed targets, easier to hit than mobile ones; Iran's missiles likely had pre-locked coordinates, now firing them off.

Yesterday's Defense Department press conference (Hegseth + joint chiefs) was telling: when reporters asked specific questions ("how many troops? How long?"), the official answer was "that involves military intelligence, can't disclose" — and frankly, they don't know either. Trump talked about 4 weeks but it could be 1 week or 6.

AI in modern warfare

This conflict is showing how much AI has advanced US military operations. Recent strikes (Venezuela, Iran) have been dramatically more efficient and precise than past campaigns.

The AI we see in civilian life — DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Anthropic, etc. — is impressive. Military AI is even further ahead. This translates to: - Shorter operations (less time means less cost) - Higher precision (fewer civilian losses, less collateral) - Lower military budget consumption going forward

This is part of why defense stocks are selling off — markets are starting to price in shorter wars, lower sustained spending.

Defense stocks — fast pullback

Monday started with elevated pre-market prints. Monday night → Tuesday: massive spikes (KTOS, AVAV, ONDS up double digits). Then profit-taking drove fast reversals by Tuesday afternoon.

Speaker's takeaway: market psychology has shifted toward fast take-profit ("more cunning"). Once a position is in the green on news, sellers exit immediately. This is the new market regime.

Position notes: - KTOS: small position added on Monday/Tuesday — high PE but already pulled back twice; good entry - AVAV: spiked, then crashed -17% on losing a major contract; bounced +9% next day - OndasH: added small position on dip - RedCat: unexpected — ran to $28 (from $18). Speaker exited a small call option position too early. RedCat could benefit from Iran (FPV/first-person-view drone tech, plus possible US ground inspection of Iran nuclear sites). Pre-Q4 earnings (March 18) will be important. - Big primes (LMT, GD, RTX, NOC, HII): only down 1-3%; most exposed to post-war pullback since their PEs are elevated. Speaker would not buy here.

When the war ends, defense capital will rotate out. The pullback in primes is coming.

BKSY Q4 earnings — record

• Revenue Q4: $35M (slight miss vs guidance, but historic high)
• Backlog: $345M (all-time high, +6.9% QoQ)
• Gen 3 satellites = 90%+ of backlog
• Gross margin jumped from ~30% to 49%
• Net margin: -2.46% (essentially zero — net profit imminent)
• Liquidity: $225M+
• Adjusted EBITDA: positive for 2 consecutive years

The story underneath: even though Q4 revenue slightly missed (because they shipped lots of backlog last year), the backlog kept growing at near-Q3 pace. Translation: Q4 brought in new contracts faster than they were burned through. Growth is sustained, even at scale.

Iran conflict tailwinds for BKSY: When Saudi, UAE, and other Gulf states get hit with Iranian rockets, they urgently want rapid-redirection imagery — exactly BKSY's product. Government segment will see incoming order pressure.

Speaker's positioning: Currently at $22 (recovered from $18 low, peak was $30+). PE/multiple looks reasonable, financials improving. Will likely add to BKSY position in coming days.

ASTS Q4 — blow-out beat

• 2025 total revenue: $70.9M (up dramatically from near-zero baseline)
• Customer commitments: $12B+ total
• Bluebird-6 deployed and operational, hitting 120 Mbps
• Bluebird-7 launch pushed from late February to March — Blue Origin / Cape Canaveral. Reasons:
• Weather in Florida
• Blue Origin requesting extra caution on this critical first ASTS-NG flight (don't want a high-profile failure)
• After March: launch every 1-2 months
• 40 satellites planned for H1 2026
• 26 Bluebirds (Block 2) on the assembly line in various stages

Speaker's view: This is the year of resource burn. Massive capex on satellite manufacturing + launch costs. Don't focus on earnings, focus on launch execution. ASTS has plenty of cash to fund the buildout.

SpaceX V2 — the elephant

March 2 announcement: SpaceX V2 (NOT V2 Mini, the full version) will use 2,400 sq ft phased-array antennas — the same size as ASTS Bluebird Block 2. SpaceX is now architecturally copying ASTS.

But SpaceX is behind: - Needs Starship to launch satellites this large (Falcon 9 / NG don't quite carry V2) - Need to scale satellite-design team for big-aperture satellites (different from small Starlinks) - Real V2 deployment is multi-year out

SpaceX claims 5G speeds direct-to-phone, but at low user volume — actual user-load throughput drops sharply at scale, far below ASTS's 120 Mbps with multiple beam channels.

The Western anti-Starlink alliance is forming: - ASTS partners: AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, Orange (the global telco alliance) - ASTS launch: Blue Origin (Bezos, also wants to compete with SpaceX) - This is a cohort against the SpaceX/Starlink near-monopoly

Antitrust forces SpaceX to help ASTS

Critical legal point: if SpaceX achieves natural monopoly market share (like NVIDIA in chips, ASML in lithography, current Starlink in LEO satellites), that's legal under US antitrust. What's illegal is using your dominant position to shut out competitors. If Starship refused to launch ASTS satellites due to competitive position, SpaceX would face antitrust investigation and fines.

So SpaceX is contractually + legally obligated to launch ASTS satellites. ASTS's exposure is bounded.

But ASTS is wisely diversifying away — using Blue Origin for upcoming launches, since Blue Origin doesn't compete in satellite communication itself.

Bottom line

ASTS at this dip is a strong add. The triangle pullback zone speaker drew on his chart 6 weeks ago — ASTS just hit it faster than expected. Adding aggressively.

BKSY at $22 also offers good risk/reward with growing backlog and improving margins.

Defense primes (LMT, GD, RTX, NOC, HII) are not where to be for new money — too much premium, post-war rotation imminent.

OK that's the share for today. Thanks. See you next time. Bye-bye.